Has Real Estate Bottomed Out?

There’s no question, the numbers are turning around.  The bottom, according to this article was April 2009.  I have recently been to several builders and have called even more, and they are selling homes, no doubt about it, and with very FEW incentives.  November’s peak sales numbers no doubt were influenced heavily by the possibility of the $8,000 tax credit disappearing November 30.

The tax credit was revived and now goes through April 30, 2010 so my guess is, December sales will be a little more sluggish than November’s as it’s typically the slowest month in real estate.  Read that as BUYING OPPORTUNITY!  But come January, its my prediction that prices will hold or even rise as we head towards April 30, the end of the latest extended tax credit.

The late spring and early summer months of May, June and July are the busiest months in real estate typically, so any buying momentum will continue.  Banks and other sellers are holding prices much more firmly than a year ago.

If you are buying  a home, focus now!  If you are planning on selling, think listing in mid February so first time home buyers can take advantage of the tax credit.

Questions about the Tax Credit, Leasing an Investment Property, Buying or Selling a home?  Call me.  Philip  480-323-9866

From the Arizona Republic Today, December 9, 2009

Housing business picks up in Valley; foreclosures drop

1 comment by Catherine Reagor – Dec. 9, 2009 12:00 AM
The Arizona Republic

Land Advisors’ debut real-estate forecast event last week drew a crowd that packed an Arizona Biltmore resort ballroom.

Here are some key data and predictions from the event, “Real Estate: Evolution of an Industry.”

• The final tally for homebuilding permits in the Phoenix area this year will be about 8,800, which is down 85 percent from the peak in 2005

But the building market is picking back up as the oversupply of speculatively built homes sells.

“Homebuilders are out of their depression,” said Greg Vogel, chief executive

of Scottsdale-based Land Advisors. So far this year, 7,200 home lots ready for construction have sold in metropolitan Phoenix. About 42 percent of those lots were bought by homebuilders, and they don’t plan on holding on to them for long.

• Jim Belfiore, president of Belfiore Real Estate, said almost one-fourth of metro Phoenix’s current new-home developments will sell out in the next six months. New-home prices fell about 15 percent in most subdivisions during the past year.

• Phoenix’s housing market hit bottom in early April, said Mike Orr, principal of the Cromford Report, a real-estate research firm. Based on current price trends, the housing market could start to see positive appreciation rates by March.

Last month was the second-best November for home sales in the area’s history. Only November 2004 was better.

Meanwhile, both foreclosures and preforeclosures fell in Phoenix during November. Foreclosures dropped 21 percent from October to 3,808, according to the Information Market.

Preforeclosures dipped 9 percent, to 7,149. The number of overall pending foreclosures was almost flat last month, at 50,510.



60 Seconds of Real Estate - How to Easily Calculate a Monthly Mortgage Payment

60 Seconds of Real Estate

Philip Rosenberg, Designated Broker of ValleyWide Property Services.

When with clients, one of the most asked questions is, “Do you have any idea how much my total monthly payment will be?”  I tell them, “Of course!”.

How do I do this math, and in my head in order to give an immediate response and hopefully a good impression?

Lets say you are going to borrow $200,000.  Your payment of principle, interest, taxes and insurance will be about $1400 or very close to that.

$250,000 will be a monthly mortgage payment of approximately $1750.

How about for $300,000?  About $2100/month.

$150,000….1050.

Simply take the number of Thousands of dollars you will be borrowing, and multiply by $7.    Borrowing $200,000?

7 times $200 is $1400/month.  The 200 stands for the number of thousands of dollars you are borrowing.

7 times 150 is $1050.  Again, 150 represents $150,000 of  borrowed money.

NOTE:  Only do this with the amount you will be mortgaging, not the price of the house.

This is not  exact, but it’s darn close.  Taxes vary with every property as do HOA fees, so usually I add another $100 to my formula to be safe.  So $200,000 mortgage goes from $1400 to $1500.

Now you, too, can easily calculate your approximate mortgage payment.



60 Seconds of Real Estate - What is a Realtor?

60 Seconds of Real Estate

 Philip Rosenberg, owner of ValleyWide Property Services, www.azvps.com

Do you know the difference between a real estate agent, a Realtor, a Broker and an Associate Broker?

A Realtor is a currently licensed agent in any state, who belongs to the National Association of Realtors and subscribes to a strict code of ethics.

 A real estate agent can be a Realtor or if they do not belong to NAR, then they are simply an agent and are not permitted to use the Copyrighted Realtor identity logo.  Most agents are Realtors but not all.

A Broker, or Designated Broker is the sole person who is ultimately responsible for all transactions within a real estate company.  Every contract goes before him or his appointed designate, and is checked for accuracy and completeness.  Only 1 Designated Broker exists in a company. 

 All agents who wish to become a Broker must return to school to get an additional 90 hours of training, pass various school and state tests, and take a Broker Management Class.

 When a Broker is in a company that already has a Designated Broker, then he is referred to and has the title of Associate Broker.

 I hope this clarifies the titles of Agent, Realtor®, Associate Broker and Designated Broker.

 ValleyWide Property Services assist families and investors in purchasing, selling, leasing and performing Property Management Services including Home Watch Service.



Which Way are Rents Going?

Which Way Are Rents Going?

Down, according to a story written in the Arizona Business Gazette by J. Craig Anderson on September 17, 2009.  Average rental rates have decreased by 15% this past year, and according to an anonymous source, they could come down another 15%.

A quick check of my old stopping grounds, Ahwatukee - 85048, single family dwellings shows only a $0.01 per square foot drop, hardly 15%.  I checked the Ocotillo section of Chandler, 85248 where we are located and do much business stayed the same over that two year period.

Where are these 15% average price are drops?  When I run larger multifamily housing, i.e.: apartment buildings over the same two periods and the same two zip codes, I do find rental price drops of 7-9%.  A far cry from 15%!  Even though I am using only two zip codes and realizing that is probably not statistically significant for the entire valley, it is confirms what I preach to my investors.

1) Purchase single family homes, or duplexes up to fourplexes.    Single family homes in down markets don’t drop as much as large commercial complexes.

2)  During the upswing, and we WILL have an upswing, single family homes will recover faster.

3)  Obviously, there is less variation in rental income in single family units.

4)  Stay in better areas of town, or areas you know will be developed in the near future.

5)  Never buy with the thought of selling in less than 3-5 years right now (with a few exceptions).

ValleyWide Property Services, specializes in finding properties for families and investors in addition to performing Property Management, Sales and Leasing.

Why I won't list short sales

Why I won’t list a short sale…..

Fact:  According to Campbell Communications, only 23% of short sale transactions are completed......

Most buyers bail out in frustration from waiting long periods of time to get answers.  Most liens have been packaged and sold so many times in “bundles”, they don’t know who the actual lien holder is.    

But, you’ll laugh because that’s not why I won’t do short sales.  I won’t touch a short sale because no one has been able to explain to me, in simple language, what the tax ramifications  and penalties are for the deficiency, for the SELLER. 

The Law Office of Diane Drain, a Phoenix Bankruptcy Attorney, has the closest thing to an explanation of what sellers May have to pay taxes on the deficiency.  Look HERE for a comprehensive article covering both foreclosures and short sales.  If you open the link, and read the article it becomes obvious that the SELLER needs professional legal help in terms of understanding both taxes and the actual deficiency. 

Some of you reading this are saying, but Arizona is an ANTI-DEFICIENCY state.  It is, but in the anti-deficiency statutes, it never mentions “short sales”, which are technically, “negotiated settlements” with lien holders.  There have been cases where lien holders have sued the SELLER even after giving a notice of forgiveness of the deficiency.   

The administration seems to be pushing for easier short sales to be made, by formatting the way short sales are done across the board, no matter the lien holder(s).  We’ll wait and see if that moves the process of short sales along.  Sellers of short sales should seek out profession tax and legal advice prior to signing on the dotted line.